2026 Kev Lag Luam Outlook: Pob Zeb Diamond Semiconductors, Thermal Management, Thiab Pob Zeb Diamond cuab yeej & Abrasives

Xyoo 2025, tau tsav los ntawm ob lub zog ntawm kev txhawb nqa tsoomfwv txoj cai thiab kev thov los ntawm cov kev lag luam tawm tshiab, cov tuam txhab teev npe hauv pob zeb diamond sector tau nrawm lawv txoj kev tsom mus rau cov ntawv thov tseem ceeb. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov txheej txheem thoob plaws peb qhov tseem ceeb: cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor, siab - kev tswj hwm thermal, thiab siab - kawg precision sib tsoo thiab ua tiav. Los ntawm kev ua txhaum loj hauv - hom semiconductor substrates rau nti - qib sib haum xeeb hauv cov khoom siv thermal tswj - thiab los ntawm kev sib tsoo tsoos rau kev ua tiav hauv siab - kev tsim khoom kawg - cov tuam txhab ua lag luam muaj, dhau los ntawm lawv cov kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis thiab kev npaj muaj peev xwm, qhia meej meej txog txoj hauv kev rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam. Raws li lub hauv paus no, kev lag luam pob zeb diamond tau npaj nkag mus rau "theem sib sib zog nqus ntawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua tiav hauv cov thawj coj" hauv xyoo 2026, nyob rau hauv 2026 thev naus laus zis kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam scaling ntawm peb lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb no yuav yog thawj lub cav tsav kev lag luam siab - kev loj hlob zoo.

1. Core Strategic Layouts los ntawm Cov Tuam Txhab Sau Npe hauv 2025 Lay the Industry's Foundation

Nyob rau xyoo 2025, cov tuam txhab pob zeb diamond tau ua tiav cov phiaj xwm kev teeb tsa nyob rau hauv peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, kev tswj xyuas thermal, thiab kev sib tsoo / kev ua haujlwm, yog li ua kom lub hauv paus rau kev lag luam tawg tau npaj tseg rau xyoo 2026. Nyob rau hauv lub semiconductor sector, 12-inch pob zeb diamond sib koom ua ke wafer substrained los ntawm Sidfang sib koom ua ke. theem. Lub caij no, Huanghe Whirlwind tau ua tiav kev tsim khoom loj ntawm ultra-nyias (5–30 μm) 6-rau-8-inch polycrystalline pob zeb diamond wafer cov khoom siv hluav taws xob kub, nrog cov kev ntsuas kev ua tau zoo raws li cov neeg siv khoom tshwj xeeb. Cia siab rau MPCVD txoj kev, Sinomach Precision txuas ntxiv nws cov kev siv zog R&D rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob semiconductor- qib pob zeb diamond; lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv daim teb no yog kwv yees kom tshaj 10 lab RMB hauv xyoo 2025. Hauv kev tswj xyuas thermal, lub siab -lub zog hluav taws xob semiconductor heat sinks tsim los ntawm Liliang Diamond tau ua tiav dhau qhov kev sim ntawm NVIDIA. Tsis tas li ntawd, Hengsheng Zog tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus kuaj xyuas rau nws cov khoom tswj thermal nrog cov chaw tsim khoom loj, thaum Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology & Engineering tau ua tiav 4-inch ultra-nyias, ultra- tiaj tus kheej -txhawb pob zeb diamond films- ua tiav ib qho kev ua tsov rog tsawg dua li 102 kev ua siab ntev. ib tug tseem ceeb bottleneck nyob rau hauv lub chip bonding txheej txheem. Hauv kev sib tsoo thiab machining, domestically tsim precision pob zeb diamond cov cuab yeej tau ua tiav cov kev siv xws li photovoltaic silicon wafer slicing thiab ultra-precision processing ntawm silicon carbide (SiC) wafers. Cov khoom lag luam xws li micron-qib ib leeg-crystal pob zeb diamond thiab thinning sib tsoo log-tsim los ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam xws li Huanghe Whirlwind thiab Huifeng Pob zeb diamond-tau mus txog cov txheej txheem thoob ntiaj teb qib siab thiab tam sim no tau siv dav hauv cov khoom lag luam high-end, suav nrog aerospace thiab cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob.

Hais txog kev tsim muaj peev xwm thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau nrawm rau kev txhim kho cov peev txheej loj - txhawb nqa thoob plaws peb qhov tseem ceeb. Li-Power Diamond, piv txwv li, npaj yuav nruab ib qho ntxiv 400 MPCVD units; Qhov kev nthuav dav no tau kwv yees ua ob npaug ntawm nws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rau 1 lab units hauv ib xyoos los ntawm 2026. Meanwhile, Sinomach Precision leverages tus nqi hluav taws xob tsawg- nqi hluav taws xob muaj nyob ntawm nws Hami Industrial Park hauv Xinjiang los txo cov nqi tsim khoom ntawm nws MPCVD- cov khoom tsim tawm, yog li ua kom muaj kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv thermal. Lub cheeb tsam Xinjiang tau tshwm sim los ua ib txoj kev loj hlob tshiab rau semiconductor - qib pob zeb diamond kev lag luam, ua tim khawv txog kev nthuav tawm ntau yam haujlwm- xws li cov los ntawm Runjing Technology thiab Tanji Xincai- nrog rau kev npaj muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj 1 billion carats. Cov kev pib no feem ntau yog tsom rau kev kov yeej cov kev sib tw uas cuam tshuam nrog 8-inch ib leeg-pob zeb diamond substrates. Kev lag luam saw kev sib koom tes txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv; Piv txwv li, Huanghe Whirlwind tau koom tes nrog Xiamen University los tsim ib lub chaw kuaj mob sib koom ua ke rau kev tswj xyuas hluav taws xob hauv hluav taws xob, tsom mus rau kev daws cov teeb meem kub ntxhov rau 5G / 6G thiab AI chips. Tsis tas li ntawd, Huawei thiab Harbin lub koom haum thev naus laus zis (HIT) tau koom ua ke tsim kev sib koom ua ke thev naus laus zis rau silicon- ntawm - pob zeb diamond 3D integrated chips, yog li nthuav dav thaj tsam ntawm daim ntawv thov semiconductor. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub ntiaj teb no kev lag luam lub tswv yim, Huanghe Whirlwind tau ntse exported tag nrho cov kab ntau lawm ntawm nws cov HPHT presses, thaum lub export ntim ntawm nws high-end sib tsoo thiab machining cov cuab yeej tseem nce tsis tu ncua.

 

2. Qhov Tseem Ceeb Outlook rau Kev Txhim Kho Peb Lub Pob Zeb Diamond Sectors hauv 2026

2.1 Pob zeb diamond semiconductors:

Kev Txhaum Cai Los Ntawm Cov Ncauj Ncauj Lus thiab Kev Mus Los Ntawm Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Tipping Point. 2026 tau npaj los ua lub xyoo tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam ntawm pob zeb diamond semiconductors, uas tau tsav los ntawm ob qho - txoj hauv kev uas cuam tshuam nrog ob qho kev daws teeb meem ntawm cov kev sib tw tseem ceeb thiab kev ua tiav ntawm cov ntawv thov hauv qhov tiag - ntiaj teb cov xwm txheej. Hauv thaj chaw ntawm kev npaj cov ntaub ntawv, kev loj hlob ntawm - loj, qis- cov substrates tsis xws luag tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab kev loj hlob. Huanghe Whirlwind xav kom ua tiav cov kev paub dhau los hauv kev npaj ntawm 12-inch polycrystalline pob zeb diamond wafers siv los ua cov khoom siv cua sov, thaum cov tuam txhab xws li Xinjiang Tanji Xincai tab tom tsom rau lawv cov kev siv zog los tsim 8-inch ib leeg- crystal substrates, nrog rau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv tam sim no. 10⁷ cm⁻². Kev vam meej tseem ceeb tau ua tiav hauv kev siv tshuab doping; lub n-channel pob zeb diamond MOSFET thev naus laus zis tsim los ntawm Nyij Pooj NIMS tau tsim lub hauv paus rau kev ua tiav ntawm CMOS kev sib xyaw ua ke. Lub caij no, lub siab -kev ua tau zoo ntau doping ua kom siv thev naus laus zis- tau tsim los ntawm kev sib koom tes ntawm cov tsev kawm qib siab hauv tsev thiab cov lag luam- tuav cov lus cog tseg ntawm kev daws qhov ntev - sawv kev sib tw ntawm fabricating high-performance pn junctions ntawm chav tsev kub.

Hais txog daim ntawv thov scenarios, cov cuab yeej tsim los rau huab cua ib puag ncig yuav tsum yog thawj zaug kom ua tiav kev ua tiav ntau lawm. Nyiv lub Okuma Corporation npaj yuav pib tsim cov pob zeb diamond semiconductor li xyoo 2026, nrog cov ntawv thov thawj zaug tsom rau cov neeg hlau siv rau kev tsim cov khib nyiab nuclear ntawm Fukushima nuclear fais fab nroj tsuag; leveraging lawv siab -kub tsis kam thiab hluav taws xob- hardened zog, cov cuab yeej no yuav tshem tawm qhov xav tau rau hnyav txhuas thaiv thiab cua txias tshuab. Cov lag luam hauv tsev, qhov sib txawv, tab tom tsom mus rau cov haujlwm xws li 5G / 6G kev sib txuas lus thiab kev sib txuas lus satellite. Kev lag luam tawm ntawm 2-inch ib leeg-pob zeb diamond substrates-ib qho kev ua tiav los ntawm Xi'an Jiaotong University- tau teeb tsa kom nthuav dav ntxiv ntawm cov ntawv thov, muab cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb rau cov lag luam koom nrog siab - zaus, siab -log. Hais txog kev tswj hwm tus nqi, thaj tsam Xinjiang tau siv nws lub zog kom zoo los ua kom muaj zog ntau dua - nce ntau lawm; Nws tau cia siab tias 4-inch pob zeb diamond substrates yuav sai sai no ua tiav cov khoom loj, yog li maj mam txo tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv silicon thiab pab txhawb kev hloov pauv ntawm cov ntawv thov semiconductor los ntawm kev ua tub rog-kev lag luam mus rau pej xeem kev ua lag luam.

 

2.2 Pob Zeb Diamond Thaum tshav kub kub Dissipation:

Tsav los ntawm Kev Xav Tau Hauv Kev Sib Txuas-Kev nrawm nrawm ntawm "Optional" mus rau "Qhov tseem ceeb." Qhov kev thov rau cov cua kub kub ceev ceev dissipation-tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam xws li AI chips, 5G / 6G hauv paus chaw nres tsheb, thiab lub zog tshiab lub tsheb inverters- tau npaj los ua kom muaj kev vam meej nyob rau hauv daim ntawv thov ntawm pob zeb diamond kub dissipation cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm 2026, elevating lawv cov lag luam raws li txoj cai "txog qhov kev xav tau". Nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej ntawm thev naus laus zis, kev tsim cov txheej txheem rau ultra-thin, ultra-paj pob zeb diamond films txuas ntxiv mus rau mature; 4-inch zaj duab xis thev naus laus zis tsim los ntawm Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology thiab Engineering tau teeb tsa kom hloov kho mus rau 6-inch thiab loj dua, muab cov kev daws teeb meem kub kub uas zoo dua rau kev ntim khoom 3D thiab kev sib koom ua ke sib txawv. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov kev cov nyom uas cuam tshuam nrog cov metallization saum npoo tau raug daws loj heev; pob zeb diamond-raws li cov khoom siv thauj khoom thauj khoom- sib koom tsim los ntawm Huanghe Whirlwind thiab Bozhi Jinduan-siv cov txheej txheem kev hloov kho saum npoo av los txhim kho ob qho tib si thermal conductivity thiab kev ntseeg tau, yog li ua tau raws li qhov yuav tsum tau ntim ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab.

Kev lag luam loj yog npaj kom muaj kev loj hlob tawg. Kev kwv yees qhia tau hais tias lub pob zeb diamond kub dissipation kev ua lag luam yog npaj rau skyrocket los ntawm $ 50 lab nyob rau hauv 2025 (sawv cev rau ib tug nkag mus ntawm tsawg tshaj li 0.1%) mus rau $ 15.2 billion nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no (mus txog ib tug nkag mus txog ntawm kwv yees li 10%), nrog ib tug projected compound txhua xyoo kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm 214%. dissipation khoom rau pej xeem sector-ua los ntawm Sinomach Precision- yuav tsum tau nyob rau hauv 2026, kos ib tug tseem ceeb kev hloov ntawm tsis yog{11}} pej xeem mus rau pej xeem daim ntawv thov. Lub caij no, kev nce qib ntawm cov dab dej kub ua kom muaj peev xwm los ntawm cov tuam txhab xws li LiLiang Pob Zeb Diamond thiab Hengsheng Zog tau npaj kom tau raws li qhov kev xav tau loj ntawm cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam xws li NVIDIA thiab sab saum toj -tier domestic chip manufacturers. Daim ntawv thov scenarios tau nthuav dav ntxiv; Tshaj siab tshaj - cov chips kawg, cov cua kub dissipation yuav tsum muaj nyob rau hauv cov chaw xws li cov chaw zov me nyuam thiab cov kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag lasers tau tshwm sim los ua tus tsav tsheb loj hlob tshiab, txhawb nqa kev lag luam sib txawv rau cov pob zeb diamond-raws li cov ntaub ntawv tswj thermal.

2.3 Pob zeb diamond sib tsoo thiab ua:

Kev Txhim Kho Siab -Kev Tsim Kho Kawg los ua kom muaj kev lag luam lub hauv paus. Raws li thaj chaw ib txwm muaj zog hauv kev lag luam pob zeb diamond, kev sib tsoo thiab kev ua haujlwm yuav tsum nyob rau hauv 2026 kom nce qib hauv siab -kev tsim khoom kawg kom ua tiav kev txhim kho ib txhij ntawm cov khoom zoo thiab daim ntawv thov, hloov los ntawm kev ua "cov hniav ntawm kev lag luam" los ua "cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau kev ua haujlwm zoo." Kev thov los ntawm siab-kev tsim khoom kawg-xws li photovoltaics thiab semiconductors- tau dhau los ua lub cav loj hlob tseem ceeb. Cov khoom lag luam xws li pob zeb diamond thinning log thiab precision sib tsoo discs tau ua tiav tag nrho - teev hloov pauv hauv ultra- kev ua tiav nto ntawm silicon carbide (SiC) wafers; Qhov tseeb, cov khoom lag luam los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam tau dhau los ua cov qauv thoob ntiaj teb thoob ntiaj teb cov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb xws li kev ua haujlwm zoo, txiav precision, thiab kev pabcuam lub neej. Kev thov nyob rau hauv lub tsheb tshiab lub zog (NEV) cov saw hlau txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv; kev lag luam loj rau nano- pob zeb diamond abrasives siv hauv kev ua cov roj teeb hluav taws xob electrode nplooj ntawv yog kwv yees rau peb npaug, thaum tag nrho cov npoo rau cov khoom siv tshwj xeeb siv hauv qhov sib sib zog nqus- hiav txwv thiab shale roj tshawb nrhiav yuav tsum nyob twj ywm siab dua 45%.

Kev hloov kho thev naus laus zis tau tsav qhov kev ua kom zoo ntawm cov khoom tsim, nrog rau kev faib ua feem ntawm micron - thiab nano- nplai ib zaug - cov khoom siv pob zeb diamond txuas ntxiv nce. R&D rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv sib tsoo ua haujlwm nrawm nrawm, thiab cov khoom siv kho kom haum- kho kom haum raws li cov ntaub ntawv sib txawv thiab cov kev xav tau sib txawv ntawm qhov tseeb- tau dhau los ua qhov kev sib tw tseem ceeb rau cov lag luam. Kev lag luam toj roob hauv pes yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm "tus thawj coj- tsav kev loj hlob thiab niche- kev ua lag luam tawg": cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam xws li Huanghe Whirlwind thiab Huifeng Pob Zeb Diamond ua tus thawj coj hauv nruab nrab-rau- siab- kawg kev lag luam ntu los ntawm leveraging lawv cov kev ua tau zoo thoob plaws 2} cov khoom lag luam nruab nrab (cov khoom lag luam me thiab cov saw hlau) koom nrog kev sib tw sib txawv los ntawm kev tsom mus rau niche lem, xws li precision machining ntawm aerospace Cheebtsam thiab kev sib tsoo ntawm cov cuab yeej kho mob. Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb nthuav dav txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv; leveraging lawv qhov zoo nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si nqi thiab zoo, domestic pob zeb diamond sib tsoo cov cuab yeej yog ntxiv nkag mus rau txawv teb chaws kev lag luam-xws li cov teb chaws Asia, Europe, thiab cov Americas- nrog rau txhua xyoo kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm export ntim tsis tu ncua ntau tshaj 20%.

 

2.4 Kev sib tw sib tw thiab kev sib koom tes:

Peb Qhov Kev Ua Haujlwm Loj Ua Haujlwm Sib Koom Tes Ua Ib Lub Ecosystem rau Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam. Xyoo 2026, peb qhov tseem ceeb no yuav ntsib cov teeb meem kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam: Ua ntej, kev cia siab rau siab - cov khoom siv kawg thiab cov khoom siv raw tseem tsis tau daws tag nrho; tshwj xeeb, ntu tseem ceeb- xws li cov khoom tseem ceeb rau siab -kawg MPCVD cov cuab yeej thiab siab -cov pa roj carbon purity- tseem nyob ntawm kev xa khoom. Qhov thib ob, cov txheej txheem txheej txheem tseem tsis tiav, nrog rau kev ntsuas kev ua tau zoo thiab daim ntawv thov tshwj xeeb rau cov khoom siv pob zeb diamond semiconductor thiab siab - kawg thermal tswj cov khoom tseem tos kev sib koom ua ke. Qhov thib peb, qhov nyuaj me me thiab nruab nrab-cov lag luam loj (SMEs) ntsib hauv kev ruaj ntseg nyiaj txiag tseem yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb, txwv tsis pub lawv lub peev xwm rau kev siv thev naus laus zis R&D thiab kev nthuav dav ntau lawm. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, muaj kev lees paub tsis muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev siv thev naus laus zis thoob plaws cov haujlwm no, ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev txhais lus sai sai hauv cov ntaub ntawv kev npaj thev naus laus zis los ntawm ib lub npe mus rau lwm qhov.
Kev txhawb nqa txoj cai thiab kev sib koom ua lag luam yuav muab kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev ua tiav thoob plaws peb txoj haujlwm no. Lub teb chaws "15th Tsib-Year Plan" muab lub tswv yim tsom rau kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv tshiab, nrog rau cov nyiaj tshwj xeeb tau npaj los ua qhov tseem ceeb rau R&D rau cov thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb xws li semiconductor pob zeb diamond substrates thiab siab -kawg thermal tswj cov ntaub ntawv. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig yog yuam kev sib tsoo thiab kev ua haujlwm kom dhau mus rau kev hloov pauv ntsuab; tshwj xeeb, kev hloov pauv los ntawm cov resin-bonded abrasives rau hlau-bonded lwm txoj kev yuav tsum tsim kom muaj 20 billion RMB kev lag luam rau cov cuab yeej retrofitting. Kev sib koom tes kev lag luam ecosystem yog nrawm nws tsim; Kev sib koom ua ke nrog kev lag luam, kev kawm, thiab cov tsev kawm tshawb fawb tau ua kom zoo dua qub, thaum cov chaw lag luam sab saud thiab sab qab teb tab tom tsim cov chaw soj nstuam sib koom ua ke los ua kom muaj kev sib koom ua ke thev naus laus zis thoob plaws cov ntaub ntawv npaj, kev tsim khoom, thiab daim ntawv thov kev siv cov theem. Kev tsim kho tshiab hauv cov saw nyiaj txiag, ua ke nrog kev txhim kho hauv cov kev pabcuam tshwj xeeb logistics, yuav pab daws cov teebmeem nyiaj txiag uas tau ntsib los ntawm SMEs thiab ua kom muaj kev nyab xeeb thiab muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob plaws peb cov haujlwm no.

 

3. Cov lus xaus

Lub tswv yim thiab meej txoj hauj lwm ua los ntawm cov tuam txhab teev npe thoob plaws peb qhov chaw loj -semiconductor diamonds, thermal tswj, thiab kev sib tsoo / kev ua haujlwm-hauv xyoo 2025 tau tsim lub hauv paus ruaj khov rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam hauv 2026. Saib tom ntej, peb cov haujlwm tseem ceeb no yuav ua txhua yam mus rau qhov sib txawv ntawm 4} kev lag luam, kev ua lag luam zoo, - kev txhim kho- los tsav lub pob zeb diamond kev lag luam kev hloov pauv los ntawm kev nthuav dav tsuas yog mus rau siab - kev txhim kho zoo. Txawm hais tias muaj kev sib koom ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam thiab kev sib tw, cov tuam txhab pob zeb diamond hauv tsev - txhawb nqa los ntawm txoj cai faib nyiaj, kev thov los ntawm kev lag luam tawm tshiab, thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev lag luam ecosystem - tau npaj kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntau hauv nruab nrab hauv lub ntiaj teb cov saw hlau rau cov khoom siv semiconductor, siab - thiab kev tswj xyuas qhov kawg. Ua ke, peb txoj haujlwm no yuav ua tus ncej tseem ceeb uas txhawb nqa lub siab - kev loj hlob zoo ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam.